Appendix:
| Country | Warning | Context |
| United Kingdom | Nigel Farage, former leader of the Brexit Party and Reform UK, warned in November 2023 that ‘mass immigration’ and multiculturalism risked ‘civil unrest verging on conflict’ if integration continues to fail | Following the Dublin riots in November 2023, Farage linked the UK’s own tensions—exemplified by 2024 Southport riots after a mass stabbing blamed on a migrant-background individual—to immigration policies. He argued that cultural divisions and “two-tier policing” favouring minorities could destabilize Britain, a stance echoed during his appearances on GB News and X posts amplifying far-right concerns. |
| France | Éric Zemmour, 2021 plus French generals 2021 both warning of ‘civil war’ | Terrorist attacks (e.g., 2020 beheading of Samuel Paty) and suburban unrest tied to immigrant populations fueled fears of cultural fragmentation. |
| Germany | Hans-Georg Maaßen, former intelligence chief, warned in 2022 that failure to control immigration and integrate migrants risked ‘civil war-like conditions’ | The 2021 migrant influx and AfD’s rise capitalized on anti-immigrant sentiment, with incidents like the 2020 Hanau shooting underscoring tensions. |
| Sweden | Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats, warned in 2022 that multiculturalism and immigration-driven crime could push Sweden toward ‘civil conflict’ | Rising gang violence in immigrant-heavy areas (e.g., 2023 Malmö shootings) has been linked to failed integration, amplifying public unrest. |
| Italy | Matteo Salvini, former Interior Minister, warned in 2020 that uncontrolled immigration could spark ‘civil conflict’ between Italians and migrants amid economic strain | Migrant arrivals (e.g., 2021 Lampedusa surge) and clashes in urban centers fueled anti-immigrant rhetoric from the far-right League party. |
| Netherlands | Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom, warned in 2023 that ‘Islamization’ and immigration could lead to ‘civil war’ if multiculturalism is not reversed | Farmer protests (2022–2023) intersected with anti-immigrant sentiment, with Wilders citing cultural erosion as a destabilizing force. |
| Hungary | Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister, warned in 2021 that multiculturalism from immigration threatened ‘civil conflict’ by undermining Hungary’s Christian identity | Orbán’s government has framed immigration (e.g., 2021 Afghan refugee debates) as an existential threat, justifying border fences and nationalist policies. |
| Denmark | Rasmus Paludan, leader of the Hard Line party, warned in 2022 that immigration and multiculturalism could lead to ‘civil conflict’ if ghettoized communities grow | Anti-immigrant riots (e.g., 2022 Quran burnings) and strict “ghetto laws” reflect fears of parallel societies destabilizing Danish cohesion. |
| Austria | Herbert Kickl, leader of the Freedom Party (FPÖ), warned in 2023 that immigration and multicultural policies could provoke ‘civil war’ by eroding Austrian culture | The 2020 Vienna attack and subsequent immigration debates bolstered far-right claims of societal breakdown linked to migrant inflows. |
| Belgium | Filip Dewinter, Vlaams Belang politician, warned in 2021 that multiculturalism and immigration in Brussels could lead to ‘civil conflict’ between Flemish natives and migrant groups | Brussels’ large immigrant population and linguistic tensions have been cited as risks, with far-right voices amplifying cultural clash narratives. |
| Spain | Santiago Abascal, leader of the Vox party, warned in 2021 that unchecked immigration and multiculturalism could lead to ‘civil conflict’ by threatening Spanish identity | Rising migrant arrivals (e.g., 2021 Ceuta border crisis) and Vox’s anti-immigrant stance have fueled debates about cultural cohesion, especially in southern regions. |
| Poland | Jarosław Kaczyński, leader of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, warned in 2022 that EU-driven immigration policies could destabilize Poland, risking ‘civil conflict’ with native Poles | Poland’s resistance to EU migrant quotas (e.g., 2021 Belarus border crisis) and fears of multiculturalism eroding Catholic values have stoked nationalist tensions. |
| Greece | Kyriakos Velopoulos, leader of Greek Solution, warned in 2020 that immigration influxes could spark ‘civil conflict’ if migrants overwhelm Greek culture and resources | The 2020 Moria camp crisis and clashes on islands like Lesbos heightened anti-immigrant sentiment, with far-right voices citing multiculturalism as a threat. |
| Switzerland | Oskar Freysinger, former Swiss People’s Party (SVP) politician, warned in 2021 that growing immigration and multicultural policies could lead to ‘civil conflict’ by diluting Swiss traditions | Debates over asylum policies (e.g., 2021 Afghan arrivals) and SVP’s campaigns against minarets and burqas reflect fears of cultural destabilization. |
| Czech Republic | Tomio Okamura, leader of the Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party, warned in 2023 that immigration and multiculturalism could provoke ‘civil war’ by clashing with Czech homogeneity | Anti-immigrant protests (e.g., 2022 Ukraine refugee debates) and Okamura’s rhetoric against EU migration policies have amplified concerns about societal fracture. |
| Ireland | Gearóid Murphy, an Irish nationalist and prominent anti-immigration commentator, warned in 2023 that mass immigration could lead to ‘civil conflict’ by overwhelming Irish culture and resources | Anti-immigrant protests surged in 2022–2023 (e.g., East Wall, Ballymun), culminating in the November 2023 Dublin riots after a stabbing by an immigrant-background individual. Far-right voices have framed multiculturalism as a threat to Irish identity, especially amid the housing crisis and Ukrainian refugee influx. |
| Finland | Jussi Halla-aho, former leader of the Finns Party, warned in 2021 that immigration and multiculturalism could destabilize Finland, potentially leading to ‘civil conflict’ if integration fails | Finland’s shift from emigration to immigration (e.g., 2022 Ukrainian refugees) has sparked backlash. Halla-aho’s rhetoric ties rising crime and cultural tensions in Helsinki suburbs to multicultural policies, echoing broader Nordic concerns. |
| Norway | Sylvi Listhaug, former Justice Minister and Progress Party politician, warned in 2022 that lax immigration policies and multiculturalism could erode social cohesion, risking ‘conflict’ akin to Sweden’s issues | Norway tightened asylum laws post-2015 migrant crisis, but debates over Muslim integration (e.g., 2021 Oslo protests) and crime in immigrant areas have fueled warnings of societal fracture from anti-immigrant figures. |
| Portugal | André Ventura, leader of the Chega party, warned in 2020 that immigration and multiculturalism could lead to ‘civil conflict’ by clashing with Portuguese values and straining social systems | Though historically immigration-friendly, Portugal saw Chega’s rise (e.g., 2022 election gains) amid debates over African and Brazilian migrants, with Ventura linking crime and cultural erosion to multicultural policies. |
| Slovakia | Ľudovít Ódor, an economist and former advisor, warned in 2023 that rising anti-immigrant sentiment and multiculturalism could spark ‘civil unrest’ if populist rhetoric escalates. | Slovakia’s rejection of EU migrant quotas (e.g., 2021 stance) and far-right parties like ĽSNS blaming immigrants for social issues have heightened tensions, though immigration remains low compared to Western Europe. |
Author David Betz:
Dr. David J Betz BA, MA (Carleton) PhD (Glasgow) joined the Department of War Studies, King’s College London after completing his PhD in 2002. His research interests are insurgency and counterinsurgency, information warfare and cyber war, propaganda, as well as civil-military relations and strategy. Betz is head of the Insurgency Research Group and was the academic director of the War Studies Online MA program for its first five years. He also leads a 2-year U.S. Department of Defense Minerva-funded project on ‘Strategy and the Network Society’. Beyond the Department of War Studies, Betz is also a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). He has advised and worked with the Ministry of Defence (UK) and Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) on strategic issues, counterinsurgency and stabilization doctrine, and cyberspace and cyber strategy. He also lectures abroad (United States, Israel and Italy) as well as in the UK at the Defence Academy to the Advanced and Intermediate Command and Staff.
